应用乘数法估计暗娼规模的方法学研究

A methodological study on commercial sex workers population size estimation by multiplier method

目的研究应用乘数法估计暗娼规模时的适用性及应用特点,为在其他地区使用该方法估计暗娼规模提供方法学依据。方法以医疗机构妇科门诊为基础获得首次就诊者中暗娼比例,同时以社区为基础获得暗娼到目标机构就诊的比例,应用乘数法估计某市城区暗娼规模。结果医疗机构妇科门诊首次就诊者中暗娼占8.9%,社区暗娼中承认到目标机构就诊比例为14.3%,从而推算到该市城区暗娼规模为3642人。结论乘数法比较适用于暗娼规模估计,但应用时应根据调查地区特点制定实施计划,并在医疗机构调查时人群身份识别、社区暗娼求医行为调查时样本代表性等环节控制可能产生的偏倚。

Objective To explore the applicability and characteristic of multiplier method in estimating population size of commercial sex workers and to provide methodological evidences for further application. Methods Multiplier method was applied to estimate the population size of commercial sex workers in urban areas of a city through the proportion of sex workers among gynecologic patients who went to target hospitals for the first time and the proportion of the sex workers who went to the target hospitals during survey period. Results Proportion of sex workers among gynecologic patients who went to the target hospital for the first time was 8.9%. Meanwhile proportion of the sex workers who went to the target hospitals during survey period was 14.3%. The population size of commercial sex workers in the urban area of the city was 3 642. Conclusions Multiplier method is applicable in estimating the population size of commercial sex workers. The fieldwork should make indispensable adjustment according to local situation and control the biases in each stage.