湖南省环境质量演进的波动研究

Studies on Fluctuation of Hunan Environmental Quality Evolvement.

环境库兹涅茨曲线是学术研究的热点问题,但是,对环境质量演进波动的研究还是空白。本文以湖南为例,运用计量分析及谱分析方法对湖南省环境质量演进中的波动性问题进行了尝试性实证研究。结果表明湖南环境质量的演进存在波动,且近年来各环境质量指标的波动有正向扩大的趋势;未来湖南环境质量周期波动亦将步入正向波动时期。因而,今后的发展可能会进一步加大对环境的压力,需要制定相应的环境政策来降低出现的大幅正向波动。

Environmental Kuznets curve is a hot point of academic research, but, nowadays, little research has been done on the fluctuation of environmental quality evolvement. This paper, based on the method of spectrum analysis, and taking Hunan as example, makes a trial study of this subject. By studying the fluctuation of environmental quality development, the existence of fluctuation is well proved,and furthermore, the total fluctuation of Hunan environmental quality shows a positive enlargement. We discover that, as for environmental evolvement cycle is concerned, a stage which will degrade the environment is coming, and we can not foresee an optimistic future for its environment.