基于SD模型的干旱区城市水资源承载力模拟与预测——以包头市为例

Simulation and Predication of Arid Area Urban Water Resources Bearing Capacity Based on SD Model: a Case Study of Baotou City

运用系统动力学模型对包头市城市水资源承载力进行了模拟和预测,指出包头市在未来经济社会和人口、城市发展规划中,要充分考虑水资源承载力因素,采取统筹兼顾,合理利用当地地上、地下和黄河水资源,改变过去“以需定供”的水资源利用策略,本着“以供定需”的原则,力争做到经济社会发展的速度和规模在水资源承载能力范围之内,达到地区水资源开发利用与经济社会、环境协调发展的良性状态。

Based on System dynamics model,this paper gives the simulation and predication water resources bearing capacity of Baotou,thinks over its bearing capacity factor,takes a whole measure,utilizes reasonable water resources of land and ground at place and the Yellow River in development societal,economic,number of people,construction of Baotou City in the future.According to 'deciding the requirement on possible provision',the author proposes to change past water resources utilization situation of 'deciding the provision on requirement', to strive for development speed and scale of societal economic in water resources bearing capacity ,to achieve well suitable development between the economic value and beautiful environment and water resources reasonable utilization at the area.