新疆下坂地水库Ⅷ号古滑坡稳定性分析预测

STABILITY ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF THE Ⅷ ANCIENT LANDSLIDE IN XIABANDI RESERVOIR, XINJIANG

水库内古滑坡历来颇受关注,它能否对水利枢纽工程构成威胁应进行多方面分析而不是仅以简单的力学计算为依据。本文以新疆下坂地水利枢纽工程Ⅷ号古滑坡为例,通过地质鉴别、成因机制分析及运动特征反演、工程类比、刚体极限平衡计算、数值模拟等多种方法对水库蓄水后古滑坡整体稳定性进行预测,分析古滑坡变形破坏方式。这种综合分析方法可供普遍存在的水库滑坡稳定性预测参考。

Ancient landslides in the reservoir region are always of great concern. Therefore, it is important to assess the threats they pose to the safety of hydraulic projects, which should be accomplished by a comprehensive analysis instead of a simple mechanical calculation. Taking ancient landslide No. VIII in Xiabandi reservoir as an example, the authors analyze and predict compressively its stability after impoundment by employing multiple methods including identification by observed geological phenomenon, analysis of genetic mechanisms and inversion of motion features, engineering analogy, rigid body limiting equilibrium calculation, numerical simulation, etc. This comprehensive method can be used to develop guidelines for assuring the stability of reservoir landslides.