中国粮食生产区域分化和空间分布的经济学分析

A Measure Study on Characters and Causation of the Regional Differentiation of Food Supplies in China

本文采用LQ指数和ID指数,对中国在1990年和2002年粮食生产的区域分化状况进行了统计分析。分析结果表明:在工业化和城市化的发展以及农产品市场形成条件下,稻米生产的区域分散特征、小麦生产的区域集中特征以及玉米播种面积的集中和生产产量的分散特征明显。在本文比较期内,我国粮食共增加了3946.7万吨,其中稻谷减少了31.8万吨,小麦增加了273.6万吨,玉米增加了2876.7万吨,三者合计为3118.5万吨,占我国粮食增加总产量的79.02%。本研究的结论提示,中国粮食生产的区域分化的形成对粮食生产量的变化、粮食流通政策和省际粮食贸易,甚至对应对WTO的农业市场准入量的挑战和保证我国的粮食安全都具有重要意义。

By the methods of LQ index and ID index, this paper makes a statistical study on the regional differentiation of food supplies in China from 1990 to 2002. It indicates that in the process of industrialization, urbanization and the formation of primary products market, the production of paddy and corn becomes decentralized while the production of wheat goes obviously centralized. It also shows the contracted plantation per capita and crop income ratio are the two main factors that affect the regional differentiation of food supplies. Finally, it concludes that the formation of the regional differentiation of food supplies in China has much consequence for the change of food supplies, the foodstuff circulation policy and interprovincial foodstuff trade, and even for reply to the challenge of agriculture market admittance quota of WTO.