从区域安全建设到风险管理体系的形成——从第一届世界风险大会看灾害与风险研究的现状与发展趋向

REGIONAL SAFETY CONSTRUCTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM—The Actuality and Trend of the Study of Disaster and Risk Based on the World Congress on Risk

综述了第一届世界风险大会关于灾害与风险科学研究的进展,分析了其发展趋势,并对我国加强这一领域的研究提出了对策。灾害与风险研究的目标正在趋向一致,都集中在为可持续发展模式提供科学依据;基于灾害研究的区域安全建设正在向基于风险研究的区域风险管理体系转变,由此认为可持续发展模式就是接受一定风险水平条件下的区域发展模式,一定风险水平依赖于由区域经济水平与社会文化体系相关联的区域安全建设水平;加强我国灾害与风险科学研究的学科建设、国家实验室建设、重大项目的组织与实施已势在必行;重点开展灾害脆弱性评价体系与评价模型、风险评价体系与风险评价模型、典型区域灾害与风险管理范式、灾害与风险应急控制预案(情景分析)、灾害与风险区划等方面的研究。为此把灾害科学和风险科学,与全球变化科学和可持续发展科学统一纳入到地球系统科学体系之中,以加强与完善我国在这些领域的综合多学科交叉研究能力。

The paper reviewed the advances in the study of disaster and risk sciences on the World Congress on Risk held in Brussels, Belgium on June 22-25,2003, and analyzed their tendencies, then the countermeasures on strengthen studies in this field are presented. The aims of disaster study and risk study are tent to unanimousness, both will offer the theoretical basis for sustainable development models. Regional safety construction based on disaster study is converting into regional risk management system based on risk study. So the authors consider that sustainable development model is the regional development model under a certain risk level, and the risk level relies on the regional safety construction level that integrates the regional economic level and social cultural system. Strengthening subject construction of disaster and risk study in China, national laboratory construction, and organization and practice of key items are imperative. And we should put the study emphasis on the vulnerability assessment system and models, risk assessment system and models, disaster and risk management mode of typical region, disaster and risk emergency control scenario (scene analysis), disaster and risk regions. So the authors suggest that disaster science and risk science should be put into the earth system science system with global change science and sustainable development science, in order to strengthen and prefect the study abilities in these fields.