2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径主客观预报评价

Verification of Subjective and Objective Track Forecast of Tropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in 2002

利用目前中央气象台热带气旋路径实时业务预报中使用的各种主客观预报产品资料,对2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径实时业务预报中的主客观预报进行对比分析检验。结果显示:虽然在整体上主观预报要优于客观模式的结果,但客观模式的预报能力已接近主观预报,有时甚至还好于主观预报,特别是48小时以上时效的客观模式较主观预报具有一定的优势;而在客观模式中,全球模式优于台风模式;热带气旋路径数值模式产品的使用对提高热带气旋路径业务预报水平具有十分重要的作用。

By using of all subjective and objective model track prediction products from different countries in operational tropical cyclone forecasting in the National Meteorological Center, verification of subjective and objective track prediction of tropical cyclones in 2002 is made. The results show that in total the subjective predictions are better than the objective, but the prediction capacity of the objective products has closed to the subjective, and is better than the subjective sometime, especially for 48-72h predictions. The results show that global models are better than typhoon models among the objective products. The results also indicate that the use of numeric tropical cyclone track prediction is helpful to improve the operational tropical cyclone forecasting.