模糊层次分析法在山区大农业发展决策中的应用

The Application of Fuzzy Analysis Hierarchy Process on the Decision-making of Agricultural Development in Mountain Area

采用模糊层次分析方法,综合考虑自然资源条件和市场需求,分析并提出陇南山区白龙江流域各垂直气候层中农业各部门的优先发展顺序,为山区大农业发展提供决策依据。

As a result of a great difference of mountains relative height in the Bailong River watershed, south Gansu Province, there is a great difference in the vertical climate and there is a diversiform characteristic in mak- ing up of agriculture with cereal crop(cash crop) planting, forestry(fruit farming), livestock agriculture, par- ergon, fishing(in fish pond). In order to effectively exploit and utilize agroclimatic resources in mountain area based on protecting mountain ecological environment and boosting up competitive power of farm produce, it is necessary to put forward the sequence of priority to the development of every agricultural category for different vertical climatic zones and to establish a rational agricultural development programming, to form a optimization agricultural structure that not only accord with the order of nature but accord with the order of economy. Based on a field survey and wide collecting opinions, using fuzzy analysis hierarchy process with the theory of systems engineering guidance, according to concrete circumstances of different vertical climatic zone, the sequence of pri- ority to the development of every agricultural category and some schemes of adjusting agricultural structure for 5 vertical climatic zones in mountain area in the Bailong River watershed,south Gansu Province were put forward. The research result can provide the basis for strategic decision of agricultural development in the mountain area. The research work has brought about a result that the position of cereal crop(cash crop) planting gradually moves backwards in the sequence of priority to the development of every agricultural category with an increase in altitude, but the position of livestock agriculture gradually moves ahead and the position of forestry(fruit farm- ing) is in front in many climatic zones. Therefore, in different vertical climatic zone, it can be concluded that their developmental emphases are different as far as cereal crop(cash crop) planting and livestock agriculture, but the development of forestry(fruit farming) is equally important.