上市公司财务困境的回归预测

Regressive Prediction Model Using in the Financial Distress of Public Limited Corporation

在合理选择财务指标的基础上,利用因子分析计算个体综合因子得分,并在综合因子得分与财务指标之间建立回归预测模型;最后,择取2003年“财务状况异常”的上市公司来检验模型的合理性,证明了模型对陷入财务困境的公司有较高的预测准确性。判断财务困境的回归模型引入和其较方便的操作性,可以使证券市场及时发现财务失败公司,市场监管者可以减少公司违规、违法的监督成本,证券投资者可以缩小择股范围、加大投资的准确性。同时,通过上市来融资的股份公司也可以利用其预警作用,提前采取对策,防止出现因财务进一步恶化而被退市的命运。

This article has established a prediction model of corporation financial distress by adopting factor analysis and regression model. The model uses the updated financial data that can predict financial failure, and avoid the loss of financial information. To forest the distress can warn investors the risk of loss. Financial institute such as banks can decrease the risk of the bad debts. The manager of the corporation will be forced to take active action to improve the financial state of the corporation.