长江中下游21世纪初客船船型研究

A Study of Passenger Ship on the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River at the Beginning of the 21st Century

本文采用灰色信息预测理论对长江汉申线客运量进行预测,建立了长期预测模型。在此基础上,借助随机衡准指标下的船型参数正交设计和方差分析方法,得出适应21世纪初的新型汉申直达双体客船方案。本文还就高速双体船航行于汉申、汉宁及汉浔航线进行了经济可行性探讨。

Applying the theory of grey system to predict the capacity of passengers on the route of the Yangtze River between Wuhan and Shanghai, the article establishes the long-term predicting model. On the basis of prediction, with the aid of the orthogonal design method of ship parameters and the method of square error analysis in the condition of stochastic criteria, a scheme is obtained suitable to the new type catamaran of through passenger ship at the beginning of the 21st century between Wuhan and Shanghai. The paper also discusses the economic feasibility of high-spaed catamaran to serve the routes from Wuhan to Shanghai, Nanjin, as well as Jiujiang respectively.