中国交通投资经济效应的量化甄别

Modeling of Economic Effect of Transport Investment in China

分析交通建设投入与经济发展的关系对科学制订发展和投资政策是十分必要的,然而目前还缺乏令人满意的理论和模型。本文对过去50年中国交通运输基础设施投资与经济发展关系进行定量分析和模型拟合,定量刻画了中国交通投资与国民经济的历史关系,对交通投资滞后效应进行了模型化分析。结果发现,中国交通投资对经济增长的促进作用,具有“厂”形规律,交通投资存在显著的滞后效应,其滞后期大约为5年,但滞后期时间趋于变短,强度趋于增大。

Analysis of the relationship between transport investment and economic development is critical for making decision of investment, but up to now there is no satisfactory theory or model. In this paper, we try to make a quantitative analysis of the economic effect of China's transport investment in the past 50 years, and analyze its lag effect with a model. The results show that transport investment has an effect on the economic growth in a nonlinear manner and the effect lags behind for a phase of about five years, which tends to be shorter and stronger.