铁路路网规划运量预测研究

Study of the Forecast Method of Transportation Volume in Railway Network Planning

铁路运输具有单路径固定性特征。借鉴公路四阶段法的成熟思路,本文采用定性与定量相结合的综合运量预测方法,对成都铁路局的中长期路网规划中的运量进行了预测,即运用SPSS软件定量预测出趋势运量和利用在跨越式发展背景下的专家意见定性预测出转移运量和诱增运量。最后,在此预测运量的基础上提出了成都铁路局在中长期的通道加强序列和重载高速的运输发展策略。

Railway transportation is characterized by single-fixed-route. Using the perfect method of four-step planning procedure of road traffic for reference, this paper uses the qualitative-and-quantitative synthesis method to forecast the transportation volume necessary for the mid-and-long-term network planning of Chengdu railway bureau, that is, using SPSS software to get quantitative tendency volume and using experts’ advice, considering the background of leap-type development, to get qualitative transfer and induced volumes. Finally, based on the forccast results, the strengthened order of transportation corridor and the development strategies of heavy haul and high-speed transportation for Chengdu railway bureau in the mid-and-long term is proposed.