金融危机理论与模型的最新发展及对我国的启示

The Latest Development of Theories and Models of Financial Crisis and Their Inspirations to China

亚洲金融危机以来,由金融恐慌所驱动的金融危机模型、由经济基础变量所驱动的金融危机模型、强调金融系统不稳定性的金融危机模型,大致代表了金融危机理论与模型的最新发展。在Morris和Shin的研究框架基础之上,强调金融危机与经济基础变量之间的联系、强调经济基础变量与投资者预期形式之间的联系可能是金融危机理论发展的一个新方向。金融危机理论与模型的最新发展对我国当前防范金融危机有着很重要的启示。

Models of financial crisis driven by financial panics, models driven by fundamental variables, and models stressing the instability of the financial system are more or less, the latest representatives of theories and models of financial crises since the Asian financial crisis. Based on the framework of Morris and Shin' s researches, emphasis on connections between financial crisis and macroeconomic fundamentals, and on connections between macroeconomic fundamentals and the investors' expectation forms may be the new trend of researches of financial crises. The latest development of theories and models of financial crisis is inspiring to China in her effort to prevent financial crisis.