财政分权、转换系数与经济增长

Fiscal Decentralization,Transform Coefficient and Economic Growth

在古典增长模式和内生增长模式下,以往文献多是注重规模因素和供给层面对经济增长的决定作用。事实上,结构因素、需求层面和调控层面对经济增长的决定作用越来越居于主导地位。基于此,本文通过引入转换系数这个概念,构建了一个集规模因素与结构因素、供求力量与调控力量于一体的集成型经济增长模型;通过模型的模拟得出经济体系中的转换系数在现阶段对经济增速的影响最为显著;进而指出企业家是推动经济增长的中坚力量。另外,作为案例,本文综合计量和模拟等数学工具,就SARS对经济的冲击与政府抗击疫情和挽救市场进行了模拟。

Under the classical growth model and endogenous growth model,most of the past literatures pay attention to the analysis how scale factor and supply factor determine economic growth. But in fact,structure factor,demand factor and regulation factor are the major factors which determine economic growth step by step. For this reason,the paper constructs a model which includes scale factor and structure factor,entity economy and finance economy,market factor and regulation factor by introducing transform Coefficient. By model simulation we can get the result: Transform Coefficient of economy system have the dominant effects on the speed of economic growth. We also can get that the entrepreneur are the strong power of pushing the economic growth. And by mathematic simulation we forecast this year's growth speed can still get to 9.2% under the affects of SARS and government regulation.