升息周期中美元汇率变动趋势分析——兼论美元的中长期弱势

Dollar' s Weakness during the Cycle of Interest Rate Hike

在美联储“慎重有序”的升息步伐下,预计这一轮升息周期持续的时间较长。在这样一个较长的升息周期中,利率平价和资产市场理论对汇率的决定偏于短期,而购买力平价理论对汇率的决定侧重中长期。通货膨胀和经常项目赤字是当前美国经济的两大不平衡,恰恰它们对美元的影响是长期和持续的,因此,美元中长期依旧看跌。

With a measured pace,the present cyc le of Fed' s interest rate hike is expected to be long.The paper argues that interest rate parity and asset m arket theories focus on short -term F X rate change.For the longer -term ex change rate of dollar,it is PPP theory and CA deficit that is relevant.As a result,these two imbalances of inflation and CA deficit should lead to a weak dollar in the middle and long run.