经济发展可持续性状态与趋势定量评价方法研究

A methodology for evaluating quantitatively the sustainability status and trends of economic development

提出了基于环境绩效的可持续经济发展的定义,并设计了一个三角图.通过经济发展、资源能源消耗和环境污染三者相互关系的研究,定量评价了经济发展的可持续性.利用三角图法对中国经济发展的可持续性状态和长期变化趋势进行了评价.结果表明,2 0 0 0年中国的经济发展呈现出相对较弱的可持续性状态,中国大陆3 1个行政区大部分处于由弱不可持续性到弱可持续性的状态;1980—1991年中国经济发展表现出较弱的可持续性趋势,而1991—2 0 0 0年则呈现出较强的可持续性趋势.这是中国改革开放2 0年来在环境保护方面不断加强的结果.案例研究表明,三角图法原理简单、计算简便、结果表现直观、评价指标和对象选择灵活,是一种值得推广的评价经济发展可持续性状态和长期变化趋势的定量方法.

In conjunction with environmental performance, a definition to sustainable economic development was proposed, and a novel triangle method was designed to evaluate economic development sustainability, based on the interrelationships among economic development, resource-energy consumption and environment pollution. As a case study, the triangle method was applied to assess the sustainability status and long-term trends of China's economic development. The results showed that economic development in 2000 represented a relatively weak state of sustainability, and that most of the 31 political regions in China's Mainland reflected sustainability positions ranging from weakly unsustainable to weakly sustainable. The China's economic development between 1980—1991 revealed a rather weak sustainability trend, while that from 1991—2000 demonstrated a relatively strong sustainable trend. China's unremitting efforted in environmental protection over the last two decades would be responsible for these status and trends. The triangle method, as an intuitive platform for illustrating sustainability status and trends in economic development, seemed to hold promise as an analytical management tool given its simplicity, ease of use, and flexibility.