企业技术投资决策模型及其模拟

The Model of Enterprise Technology Invest Decision and It's Simulating

何时投资购买技术是企业技术战略研究的一个关键问题.传统的技术投资的决策准则是使用净现值(NPV)方法,这种方法会导致企业过早的投资于一项技术,也不能解释企业技术投资时间滞后的现象.企业技术投资时间的滞后可以通过技术本身的不确定性来解释,技术的不确定性主要表现为在技术演化过程中新技术出现的速度和新技术技术效率改进程度的不确定.本文针对企业技术投资中的技术效率决策问题,假设技术出现服从泊松分布、技术改进程度服从均匀分布,构建了技术投资决策模型,并对模型进行模拟,结论表明决策模型比NPV方法能更好的解释企业技术投资决策的行为.

When to invest to buy technology is a key problem in enterprise technology strategy research. The traditional decision rule of technology invest is NPV method, which will lead to early invest, and cannot interpret the phenomena of technology invest delay. The delay of enterprise technology invest can be interpreted by uncertainty of technology itself. The uncertainty of technology was mainly shown by the uncertainty of the arrival of new technology and the improvement level of technology efficient. This paper focuses on the technology efficiency decision problem of enterprise technology invest, supposes the arrival of new technology satisfying Possion distribution and improvement level of technology efficient satisfying uniform distribution, constructs an decision model of enterprise technology invest, and simulates the model. The results show the decision model interprets enterprise invest behavior well than NPV method.