摘要
在人口预测中,避开复杂系统的内部因素及他们之间的相互联系,从人口量序列综合灰变量本身寻找有用的信息,利用其动态记忆性,建立了灰色模型.对GM(1,1)模型进一步分析后,建立了新的GM(1,1)修正模型,将其用于典型区人口预测,取得了较满意的结果.
The grey model is set up by trying to avoid the internal factors and its action of the complex system in population prediction,finding available information from the grey master variant,series of population magnitude,using the dynamic remembering character. The refined (GM(1,1) model) is set up by analyzing GM(1,1) model. Then desirable results are obtained, on the basis of refined GM(1,1) model tested in population prediction of typical region.
出处
《华北水利水电学院学报》
2005年第2期1-4,共4页
North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power
基金
河南省高校创新人才培养工程项目.
关键词
GM(1
1)模型
模型修正
人口中长期预测
合理性分析
GM(1,1) model
model modification
medium-longterm population prediction
reasonable analysis
