马尾松毛虫白僵病流行在空间轴上的动态变化

Dynamic Change of Epidemic White Muscardine of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker Reflected on Spatial Axle

在对林间白僵菌宿存场所、松毛虫种群密度和针叶含水量等进行野外调查和室内测定的基础上，用逐步回归分析方法，建立了空间状态马尾松毛虫白僵病流行的主因素相关模型，并应用模糊聚类方法，对白僵病的流行程度进行了划分．揭示了白僵病在林间流行所必备的奇主、病原和环境间的相互作用关系．为马尾松毛虫白僵病流行的预测提供了理论依据．

Based on the investigation on the lodging place of white muscardine and the population density ofDendrolimus punctatus Walker in fields, and on the determination of the needles moisture contlent inlaboratary, the main factors correlations model of the epidemic white muscardine of Dendrolimus punctalus Walker in spatial axle is established by using the progressive regression analysis, and the epidemic degree ofwhite muscardine is divided by applying the fuzzy cluster analysis. This paper reveals the interactive relationsamong the host, pathogen and surroundings that are essential conditions for the epidemic of white muscardinein Masson-pine forest. The results provide a theoretical basis for forecasting the epidemic of white muscardineof Dendrolimus punctatus walker.