周期与体制:中长期贷款快速增长的动因和风险研究

周期与体制:中长期贷款快速增长的动因和风险研究中国人民银行太原中心支行课题组

近年来,山西省金融机构中长期贷款投放一直处于增长态势。本文认为,中长期贷款扩张具有以国有金融机构为主体、以基建和个人信贷为主、向中心城市和大企业集中的特点;其原因在于总需求扩张和金融体制转型滞后。本文总结了中长期贷款迅速扩张所隐含的周期性风险和体制性风险,并相应提出了政策建议。

In recent years,the amount of long-term loan has expanded dramaticall y in Shanxi Province. This paper concludes the characteristics of this trend as follows: loans are mainly issued by state-owned banks,for capital construction and individual consumption,and concentrated in large cities and enterprises. Th e courses are aggregate demand expansion and financial reform lag. This paper sh ows the economic cycle risk and institutional risk resulted from the loan growth,and generates policy suggestions respectively.