汇率定价模型及人民币兑美元汇率研究

Exchange rate pricing model and empirical study on exchange rate of conversion from RMB to US dollars

将汇率定价问题纳入宏观经济框架进行一般均衡研究.以凯恩斯的经典理论为宏观经济框架,以厂商利润最大化为微观经济基础,以严格的数学推导为逻辑纽带,以Dornbusch的价格粘性为思想指导,以购买力平价的微分冲击形式为理论依据,综合运用最优化方法、横截面联立方程组、时间序列单方程等模型方法,提出并构建了产品市场和货币市场同时均衡、劳动市场非充分就业均衡的一般均衡粘性汇率定价优化模型.以此为平台文章开发建立了它的人民币兑美元模型.应用开发的模型,对1991年至2000年的人民币一般均衡粘性汇率进行了定价,并对2001年的定价进行了预测.以此为标准,对1991年至2001年的即期汇率偏离与经常性项目的关系,进行了弹性分析.

The paper tries to put exchange rate pricing into the framework of whole macro economy and conducts general equilibrium research. The paper puts forward and constructs the General Equilibrium Sticky Exchange Rate Pricing Model(ESEPM) by using Keynes' classic theory as the macroeconomic framework, profit maximization of manufacturers as microeconomic foundation, strict mathematical deduction as logic link, Dornbusch's sticky price as ideological guideline, differential impact form of Purchasing Power Parity as theoretical foundation, and comprehensively using the models and methods such as optimization method, simultaneous equations, time series single equation, etc. The paper sets the price for the exchange rates for conversion from RMB to US dollars from 1991 to 2000, and predicts the pricing of 2001 by using the ESEPM for the conversion from RMB to US dollars. Using it as the standard, the paper conducts elastical analysis on the relation between market exchange rate deviation and current items from 1991 to 2001.