鉴别道路交通事故多发点的模糊评价法

Fuzzy Evaluating Method to Distinguish Black Spot

道路交通事故多发点的鉴别是改善道路交通安全状况最关键、最重要的一步,当被鉴别路段或交叉口的道路条件、交通条件相差较大时,采用原有的鉴别方法就难以保证鉴别精度,而又鉴于交通安全概念的模糊性、评价者思维方式的多样性以及评价结果常以口语化词汇表达的特点,提出了鉴别道路交通事故多发点的模糊评价方法。经过分析比较,模糊评价方法采用的指标是亿车公里死亡率、万车死亡率、万车当量总事故次数及事故严重性指数。在此基础上,建立了二层模糊数学评价模型,以哈尔滨市区内部分道路路段及交叉口的交通事故多发点作为应用示例进行了道路交通事故多发点鉴别。

To improve road traffic safety,it is essential to differentiate the black spots.For road sections and intersections with great difference in pavement condition and the traffic pattern,the precision of differentiation can't be assured by use of traditional method.And based on the concept of traffic safety characteristic of uncertainty with possible different oppions and assessment expressions,a fuzzy evaluating method is put forward.By analysis and comparison,the indexes that the method adopts include the mortality rate per hundred million vehicle kilometer,the mortality rate per ten thousand vehicles,the equivalent accident number per ten thousand vehicles and the ponderance index of accident.A fuzzy mathematics model is set up to differentiate the black spot with example in Harbin city.