基于层次分析法的管道风险因素权数确定

WEIGHTS CALCULATION OF PIPELINE RISK FACTORS BASED ON HIERARCHY ANALYSIS METHOD

管道风险评估是确定那些可能导致管道事故和有利于潜在事故预防的至关重要的因素,对这些风险因素的发生概率和其后果的严重性进行量化,确定高风险管段的性质和部位,为管道风险决策和风险管理提供可靠的基础依据。在管道风险评估中确定管道风险因素的权数是一个重要环节。权数分配的结果直接关系到评价结果的精确程度。为提高权数的合理性,应用系统工程中的层次分析法,通过两两比较对非定量事件作定量分析,对主观判断作客观描述,减少主观因素可能带来的偏差。以管道风险因素框图为模型,介绍利用层次分析法确定因素权数的具体过程,进行每一项风险因素相对于管道事故的权数计算。

Pipeline risk evaluation is to determine the main dangers causing pipeline failure and the important factors that may lead pipeline accidents mostly and prevent hided accidents. The probability and results produced by the risk factors are quantified. The risk ranks are gained. The characters and positions of high-risk pipeline sections are determined, which provide the reliable ground for pipeline risk decision-making and management and facilitate to dispatch and utilize the existing resource reasonably. As a result, the maximum economic and social benefits are obtained while reducing the risks, and the pipeline operation is managed more scientifically. It is the major link of the risk evaluation to determine the weights of the pipeline risk factors. The results of weight distribution are directly related to the accuracy of the evaluation. To improve the rationality of the weights, the concrete process to determine the factor weights is introduced utilizing the hierarchy analysis method. Based on the block diagram of pipeline risk factors, the weight of each risk factor corresponding to the pipeline accidents is calculated.