集合预报研究及应用进展

The Evolvement of Reseach and Application about the Ensemble Numerical Prediction

从初值扰动的生成方法、数值预报模式的建立、输出产品的提炼应用等方面简要概括了集合预报的最新进展。指出,运用BGM法生成初值扰动效果较好,多模式集合预报正成为天气预报的发展趋势;集合概率预报是集合预报的最佳结果,但发布还需要做大量的普及推广和培训工作;集合预报正在被越来越多的国家投入准业务运行和业务运行,有可能成为新的主流预报方式。

<Abstrcat>This paper briefly sums up the new development of the ensemble numerical prediction concerning the production method of the initial perturbation, the establishment of the numerical forecasting model, the abstraction and application of the output production,etc.It points out that BGM method is the better way to create the initial perturbation. The multi-model ensemble numerical prediction is becoming a trend. The ensemble Probabilistic forecasting is the best consequence of the numerical prediction, but a lot of works such as popularization and training should be done before its publication. The ensemble numerical prediction has been applying in the quasi-operation forecasting and operation forecasting by more and more countries and regions. The ensemble numerical prediction is likely to become a new mainstream method of weather prediction.