单位GDP的能源消费与经济增长模式

Energy Consumption per Unit GDP and Economy Growth Mode

本文利用联合国统计数据,对我国能源消费状况进行分析,认为与发达国家相比,单位GDP的能源消费约相差50%,基本上处在正常水平。文章分析各国统计数据,探讨了能源消费与经济增长的关系,认为在本世纪前20年我国正处在能源需求增长较快的时期,单位GDP的能源消费难以大幅度下降。原先对2020年的能源需求估计可能过于乐观。文章认为能源政策要服从经济发展的需要,分析了在经济全球化的形势下应采取的经济增长模式,提出要实行“后中先”的能源战略。

This paper analyses the energy consumption situation in China with the statistic data issued byUN. It believes that energy consumed by producing per unit GDP in China is 50% higher than that of thedeveloped countries, which is relatively at a normal level. The writer studies the statistic data of differentcountries and probes the correlation between a country抯 energy consumption level and its economic growth. Itconcludes that it is difficult to reduce energy consumption per unit GDP in our country dramatically in first 20years of this century, due to the rapid increase in energy demand. Earlier forecasts of energy demand for 2020may be over-optimistic. The author concludes that the energy policy of China should go with the need of theeconomy development. By studying which economic growth models best suitable for China under the economicglobalization, the author recommends the energy strategy of“behind midst ahead