摘要
由于钢管质量、材料性能、内压、意外载荷等因素的不确定性,实际管道总存在一定的失效概率和可靠度。介绍了利用失效评估图和蒙特-卡罗法计算管道可靠度的一种方法,并采用国外目标可靠度指标对西气东输管道的可靠度进行了预评估,结果表明:无论是否存在一定概率的漏检缺陷,西气东输管道的可靠度完全可以满足标准要求;为了提高钢管的可靠度,应在钢管制造及焊接施工过程中严格把关,以避免因人为因素造成缺陷漏检。
The actual pipeline generally occur certain failure probability and reliability due to the indetermination of pipe quality, material property,internal pressure,accident load etc...It introduces a method that use failure evaluation chart and Monte Carlo method to calculate pipeline reliability and pre-evaluate the reliability of West-East Gas Transmission Pipeline by adopting target reliability abroad.The results show that the reliability of West-East Gas Transmission Pipeline fully meets requirements of specification whether it exist certain probability of defects failure inspection or not;In order to improve reliability of pipes,strict inspection shall be performed through manufacture of pipes and welding during construction of pipeline to avoid defects failure inspection caused by man.
出处
《焊管》
2005年第3期62-65,共4页
Welded Pipe and Tube
关键词
西气东输管道
可靠度
失效评估图
预评估
蒙特-卡罗法
west-east gas transmission pipeline
reliability
failure evaluation chart
pre-evaluation
monte carlo method
