我国货币政策的数量效应与运行效果

Quantity Effect and Operation Result of China's Monetary Policy

通过对我国货币政策的数量性效应进行简单分析．并使用Granger因果检验法和向量自回归模型对1984—2001年间货币供应量与物价、收入波动的关系进行考察后，研究发现我国货币政策的数量性效应总体是明显的。在长期内我国各经济主体对货币供给有较强的制约能力，货币供给受各经济主体的经济行为影响较大。这就导致中央银行对货币供给控制的难度加大，货币政策的效果可能被削弱。

By analyzing the quantity effect of China's monetary policy and studying the currency supply measured to undulate with commodity price and income during 1984-2001 with Granger causality test and vectors autoregressive representation,we find that the quantity effect of China's monetary policy is obvious, but in the long-run China's main economic units have strong effect on the currency supply. So it is more difficult for National Central Bank to control the currency supply and the effect of the monetary policy may be driven weaken.