基于系统动力学的PRED问题——以金华市为例

Problem of Population,Resources,Environment and Development Based on System Dynamics

由于人口的增加和经济的快速发展,金华市的人口(population)、资源(resources)、环境(environment)和发展(development)不协调(简称PRED问题)。根据历史数据和2020年全面建设小康社会的标准,以金华市为例,利用系统动力学(SD)模型,仿真研究金华市未来政策实施后PRED关系的不同情况。同时指出,对于金华市来说,单方面追求经济的快速发展、以牺牲环境作为代价的方案A和把环境保护作为第一目标、经济慢速发展的方案B都是不可取的,只有人口、资源、环境和发展同时兼顾的方案C才是首选方案。

<Abstrcat> Due to population explosion and fast economic development, relationship of population and resources and environment and development of Jinhua city isn't coordinative (abbreviated term PRED problem). According to historical data and standard to all build small-scale wealthy society in 2020, using system dynamics (SD) model, different conditions of relationship of population and resources and environment and development of Jinhua city after future policy application are artificially researched following the example of Jinhua city. It is point out at the same time that, in regard to Jinhua city, the alternative A to only seek after the speedy economic development at the price of sacrificing environment and the alternative B to first aim at environment protection at the price of developing slowly economy don't produce good results. Only the alternative C of giving attention to population and resources and environment and development is the best.