梯级水库防洪标准研究

Study on Flood Control Standards of Cascading Reservoirs

为确定梯级水库防洪标准的最优方案,应用可能度-满意度理论,提出了确定其防洪标准的步骤,系统地构建了一套含不确定变量的梯级水库防洪标准评价指标体系,并与层次分析法进行了比较验证。结果表明:采用可能度-满意度理论来确定梯级水库防洪标准的方法具有一定的理论价值和现实意义,并且具有思路清晰,合理、有效、直观和便于决策等特点。

In order to work out the best plan for flood control standard of cascade reservoirs,the paper puts forward the steps for determining the standards of flood control,systematically establishes a set of index system including flood control standard eValuation of uncertain variable cascade reservoirs and verifies and compares with the method of layers analvsis through applying the theory Of possibility-satisfiability.The outcome shows that to determine the method of flood control standard of cascade reservoirs by using the theory of possibility-satisfiability has a certain theoretical value and Dmctical significance. In addition,it has the characteristics of clear train of thought,reasonable,effective.audio-visual and easy for decision-making.