不确定性条件下的湖泊总磷允许输入量分析

Analysis on Permissible Input of Lake Total Phosphorus under Uncertain Conditions

针对Dillion模型中各参数的不确定性, 运用盲数及其均值理论, 对各参数盲数化处理.并以广州麓湖为例, 估算不确定性条件下的总磷允许输入量及相应的可信度. 与传统方法相比, 盲数法更合理可信.

In view of the uncertainty of each parameter in the model of Dillion, the parameters were managed by using the theory of blind number and blind number mean. The permissible input of total phosphorus of Lu Lake in Guangzhou and the credible level were calculated. Compared with the classical method, the blind number method is more reasonable and credible according to the results of the sample.