摘要
从生态学角度出发,提出水资源承载力是在社会发展的某一阶段和生态系统良性循环的条件下,水资源对人类活动的最大支撑能力。指出目前金华市的水荒不是水源型缺水,而是水质型缺水和工程型缺水。根据20多年的历史数据和2020年全面建设小康社会的标准,利用系统动力学(SD)模型,仿真研究了金华市未来政策实施后水资源承载力的动态变化过程。同时指出,对于金华市来说,单方面追求经济的快速发展、以牺牲环境作为代价的高方案和把环境保护作为首要目标、经济慢速发展的低方案都是不可取的,只有经济发展和环境保护同时兼顾的中方案才是首选方案。
Water resources bearing capacity is defined as the maximum supporting capacity of water resources for mankind activity in a certain stage of social development and under the conditions of good circulation of ecological system. It is pointed out that present water shortage in Jinhua City is not caused by deficiency of water source, but poor water quality and lack of water conservancy projects. According to historical data of 20 years or more and the standard to attain small-scale wealthy society in 2020, by using system dynamics (SD) model, the tendency of the change of water resource bearing capacity in Jinhua City after the implementation of future policy is simulated. At present there are three alternative schemes for development of Jinhua. It is considered that the medium scheme should be adopted.
出处
《热带地理》
2005年第2期151-155,共5页
Tropical Geography
基金
浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(402034)
金华市科技计划项目(03-1-508)
关键词
系统动力学
仿真
政策参数
水资源承载力
System dynamics
Simulation
Policy parameter
Water resource bearing capacity
