灰色系统理论在库周区社会经济预测中的应用

Application of Grey Systems Theory to Social Economy Prediction for Circumjacent Reservoir Region

以往散结构论，突变论和．协同学为指导，制定了红水可１０级梯级开发的龙头电站─—龙滩水电工程库周区发展战略规划，并采用灰色系统理论对库周区经济进行预测。计算结果表明所采用的灰色预测模型、灰色系统理论和方法在库区经济系统预测中的运用是有效的。

The paper depends on the new three theories(theory of dissipative structure.catastrophe theory and synergetics)as a guide,and establishes a developmental strategy planning forthe circumjacent reservoir regin of Longtan hydropower project which is the dragon head station often-cascade development along the Red Water Rlver,and adopts grey systems theory to predict theeconomic development of the reservoir region, The computational results show that the grey predic-tion model,the theory and methods of grey systems applying to economic system prediction are effi-clent.