长输管线失效严重度多层次评价及应用

EVALUATION AND APPLICATION ANALYSIS ON FAULT SERIOUS DEGREE OF TRANSMISSION PIPELINE

长输管线发生失效的主要因素包括外界干扰、腐蚀、施工缺陷、材料自身缺陷以及地面运移等,管线失效概率的大小决定着管线性能的可靠性,应用模糊数学中的综合评判方法对长输管线失效严重度进行多目标多层次模糊综合评判。评判集包括致命、严重、中等与轻微四个等级,因素类分为管线失效概率、失效对系统性能的影响以及管线可维修性等,每一因素类又由若干影响因素组成,通过多层次模糊综合评判得到长输管线失效严重程度大小。该方法较全面地评价了失效影响的各个因素,从而克服了仅依靠失效概率大小进行长输管线失效严重程度评价带来的不足。

External interference, construction defect, material failure, corrosion, and ground movement are the initial causes that bring on the failure of transmission pipeline. The reliability of transmission pipeline system lies on the failure probability. The effect of failure was described by the fault serious degree. Appling the theory of fuzzy integrated judgment to analyse the fault serious degree, it can be divided into fatal, severe, generic and light etc. The failure probability, effects on the reliability of pipeline system, the cost of maintain composes the factor classes, there are some different factors in each factor class. Many influencing factors of pipeline's failure were considered in the fuzzy integrated judgment, and it avoided the disadvantage of judgment result , which only used the failure probability to evaluate the fault serious degree of transmission pipeline.