全球未来碳排放权“两个趋同”的分配方法

Two-convergece approach for future global carbon permit allocation

为给我国环境外交谈判提供依据以维护发展中国家的利益,在对已有碳排放权分配方法进行分析评价的基础上,提出"两个趋同"的分配方法。"两个趋同"一是趋同年(2100年)各国的人均碳排放相同,二是1990年到趋同年各国累积的人均碳排放相等。给出了中国在"两个趋同"分配方法下对应于不同二氧化碳浓度水平到2100年的碳允许排放廓线,测算并比较了主要国家或地区基于"两个趋同"法、紧缩与趋同法、多阶段参与法、以及Triptych法分配的2030、2050以及2100年的碳允许排放限额。研究结果表明:"两个趋同"的方法可以给予发展中国家应有的发展空间以实现工业化,符合公平、共同的但有区别的责任、以及可持续发展的原则。

The major global carbon permit allocation approaches introduced since 1995 were evaluated and a two-convergence approach was developed. The first convergence is that by the year 2100 each country's per capita carbon emissions should be equal, while the second convergence is that the accumulated per capita carbon emissions from 1990 to 2100 for each country should be the same. The future carbon permits for China and other major countries or regions in 2030, 2050 and 2100 were compared for various allocation approaches, including the two-convergence approach, contraction and convergence, multi-stages increasing participation, and Triptych. The results show that the two-convergence approach allows developing countries enough development room to realize industrialization and accords with fair, common but differentiated, and sustainable development principles.