灰色GM(1,1)模型在区域物流规模预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) Model to Predict Regional Logistics Scale

讨论了灰色预测模型以及灰色预测模型在物流规模预测中的应用.建立了基于灰色预测理论的GM(1,1)模型,叙述了运用GM(1,1)模型进行预测的详细步骤,并以山东省的物流规模预测为例进行了实际应用,最后用残差检验和后验差检验的方法对预测结果进行了检验,证明了预测结果的可信性.

The gray forecasting model and its application to predict logistics scale are discussed in this paper. The GM(1,1) model is set up according to gray forecasting theory and the detailed steps of the model are described. An actual application of the logistics scale prediction in Shandong province is made to illustrate the effectiveness of the model.