摘要
应用灰色系统预测理论,以GM(1,1)模型和残差修正GM(1,1)模型对港口货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量进行预测,可有效克服原始数据的离散性,在少信息的情况下得到高精度的预测结果.以武汉港货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量为例进行了中短期的预测,并对集装箱吞吐量的预测结果进行残差检验和残差修正.结论表明,通过残差修正后的预测精度均可达到最优的精度等级.
Grey model GM(1,1) and remnant difference correct model GM(1,1) are applied to the forecast throughput of goods and containers. The discreteness of originality data is overcome and the high-precise predicted result is received under the condition of a small amount of data. This paper takes a short-term forecast and remnant difference correct according to the throughput of goods and containers at Wuhan Port. The result implies that the best forecast precision is obtaimed under remnant difference correct.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2005年第3期456-459,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
关键词
灰色系统
货物吞吐量
集装箱吞吐量
预测
残差修正
grey model
throughput of goods
throughput of containers
forecast
remnant difference correct
