建设用地需求预测的理论与方法——以江苏省为例

Theories and Techniques of Construction Land Demand Forecast:Jiangsu Province as a Case

研究目的:探寻适合中国土地管理实际需求的建设用地需求预测的理论与方法。研究方法:在理论分析基础上将建设用地需求预测概念以及三种可能适用于需求预测的土地经济理论数学化、模型化,并进行实证研究。研究结果:研究发现“十一五”期间江苏省建设用地需求与管理压力进一步增大,但适当的土地政策可以避免3-5万hm2的过度性土地损失。研究结论:加快先进分析方法与工具的创新与应用,提升中国土地资源规划管理的水平。

The purpose of the paper is to explore a series of theories and techniques o f construction land demand forecast suitable for China's land a dministration.Methods of quantify ing and modeling of the concept of con s-truction land demand forecast and th ree important land economic theorie s were employed on the basis of theo-retical analysis.In the case study o f Jiangsu Province,results show that local government will face more pre s-sure on local land administration,a nd there would be a room of 30,000to 50,000hm 2 .for land policies to exert their function.More advanced analysis methodologies and tools sh ould be innovated and employed to im-prove land use planning and resource administration in China.