我国出口增长中劳务输出效应实证研究

A Further Study on the Effect of China's Labor Exports in the Growth of Commodity Exports

劳动力的国际流动到底是替代还是促进商品的国际流动,或者是两种情况皆有可能,目前的国际学术界尚无定论,其结果关键取决于具体的案例和不同的建模分析方式。本文以改革开放后的中国大陆作为研究案例,实证发现:我国对外劳务输出有力地推动了我国出口贸易的增长;虽然我国1994年的汇率调整导致出现了一次劳务人数波动率与商品出口波动率相背离的现象,但这并未影响到我国劳务输出与出口贸易之间的关系发生结构性的变化。接着,以中日之间的经贸关系为例展开进一步的分析。最后,就以上研究结果提出简要政策建议。

In the international studies, there is no common agreement on whether the influence of international labor migration on international trade is substiutable and /or complementary , and the key points lie in the specific cases or modeling modes. Based on the researches on Chinese mainland after her opening up to outside world, this paper draws the conclusion that China's labor exports help greatly accelerate the growth of commodity exports. Though deviation between the fluctuating rate of labor exports and that of commodity exports did dxist, when China was adjusting the exchange rate in 1994,it doesn't lead to the structural transformation between labor exports and commodity exports ever since then. The paper also has a further study by taking the example of Sino-Japanese economic and trade relationship. Finally, some political suggestions are briefly proposed based on previous conclusions.