经济增长速度对抗震设防标准的需求

DEMAND OF ECONOMIC RISING RATE FOR THE STANDARD OF PREPAREDNESS OF EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE

如果说西方发达国家的抗震设防标准是和其经济增长速度相适应的,那么中国也应如此。 本文建议了两种方法,用以估计适合我国国情的抗震设防标准:①理论归纳,②类比推理。前者虽然在逻辑上比较严密,但由于涉及到各界专家和管理阶层的协作,非笔者力所能及。 本文以第二种方法展开讨论。其要义是:设想西方发达国家的经济增长速度不是1％～4％,而是中国的8％～12％,这些国家的专家会如何修改他们的抗震设防标准?按此思路,我国的抗震设防标准应向下调整。以一般工业与民用建筑为例,可用P_(20)(a)=10％,取代现行国际惯例的P_(50)(a)=10％。 这样做的后果大体是:设防地震烈度在学术误差范围内降低半度,而抗震投资则以指数方式下降。

The standard of preparedness of earthquake resistance is to be adapted to its economic rising rate in Western counties, so should be that in China. Two methods are proposed to evaluate the standard of preparedness of earthquake resistance to fit for the national conditions of our country: 1. Theoretical induction, 2. reasioning from analogy. The former is logically closer, but beyond our power, because of dealing with cooperation of expert of various circles and administrative stratum. The authors only discussed the second method. Assume that the economic rising rate in western countries is not 1%-4% per year, but 8%-10% which corresponds to that in China, how does the expert modify the standard of preparedness of earthquake resistance? According this thinking, the standard of our country should be down. Taking a general industrial and civil architecture for example, the standard of preparedness cannot be P50 (a) =10%, instead of P20 (a) =10%. If so, the standard of preparedness of earthquake intensity is to be reduced by 0. 5 degree, and inverstment in earthquake resistance is exponentially down.