我国用材林资源的计算机模拟及其发展趋势预测

COMPUTER SIMULATION OF TIMBER FOREST RESOURCE IN CHINA AND PREDICTION OF THE TREND OF DEVELOPMENT

根据林木的生长规律，运用系统动力学原理，模拟了用材林资源的动态变化，并以“六五”时期森林资源清查结果检验了模拟效果：用材林总蓄积量的精度超过９５％。在建模的基础上，预测了在三种不同资源消费水平下，从“六五”至“九五”时期用材林资源的趋势变化。预计我国用材林总蓄积量在本世纪末可望回升，达到６７—７５亿ｍ３左右，但成熟林资源趋紧，处于下降态势．建议采用“限额或适度消耗模式”．

According to the growth rule of forest, the changeable trend of timber forestresource is simulated with the help of the principle of system dynamics,the modelling result is checked by comparing the simulated timber forest with inventoryone obtained during the Sixth Five-year Plan period. The precision of simulatedtotal wood storage is more than 95%. On the basis of model construction, thechangeable trend of timber resource from the Sixth Five-year Plan period to theNineth Five-year Plan period was predicted under three different resources consumption levels. It is estimated that the total timber storage in China will probably rise again at the turn of the century, totalling around 6. 7 to 7. 5 billion m3.However, the matural stand resource tends to be critical and decreasing. It is.thus suggested that a arestricted or moderate consumption model' should beadopted.