非充分灌溉制度对Jensen模型的敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of Deficit Irrigation for Jensen's Model

分析了非充分灌溉中作物各生育阶段最优耗水量及产量对Jensen模型的敏感性。基于灌溉制度优化模型,构建了非充分灌溉制度对Jensen模型的敏感度计算公式,并以北京永乐店试验站1998～1999年度冬小麦的水分生产函数为例,进行了非充分灌溉制度对Jensen模型的敏感性分析。结果表明:1Jensen模型参数λi的波动对最优灌溉制度以及产量的计算结果影响较小;2与返青—拔节、灌浆—成熟阶段相比,拔节—孕穗、孕穗—灌浆阶段的最优耗水量计算结果受参数λi波动的影响比较小;3与返青—拔节、灌浆—成熟阶段相比,拔节—孕穗、孕穗—灌浆阶段的Jensen模型参数λi波动对各阶段最优耗水量及产量的计算结果影响较小。

Sensitivities of optimal water consumptions in each growing stage and yield for Jensen's model are analyzed. Based on optimization model of irrigation program, the formula for sensitivity of deficit irrigation program for Jensen's model is built. As an example, based on experimental data measured in Experiment Station of Yong-Le-Dian from October 1998 to June 1999, sensitivities of deficit irrigation for Jensen's model are analyzed. Results show that sensitivities of deficit irrigation for Jensen's model are low, sensitivities of the optimal water consumptions in jointing-heading stage and heading-filling stage for Jensen's model are lower then sensitivities of the optimal water consumptions in other stages, and sensitivities of the optimal water consumptions in each growing stage and yield for sensitive indexes of jointing-heading stage and heading-filling stage are lower then for sensitive indexes of other stages.