全球气候变化影响我国冬小麦生产之前瞻

Prospect to the Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Production in China

将作物模型与大气环流模型(GCM)耦合,评价未来气候变化对我国冬小麦生育期、产量和灌溉需要量的影响,并采用一种农业经济模型,就研究区域未来冬小麦总产的变化进行估计;还根据若干农业气候指标,分析当CO_2倍增时研究区域冬小麦生长期干湿状况的改变,种植界线可能发生的地理位移,以及品种布局和种植制度的演进趋势等;最后提出为适应气候变化而应采取的若干战略对策。 本文的结果不是一种预测,应将其理解成是对今后气候变化影响我国冬小麦生产的范围和程度加以合理的估计。

Using an approach linking the crop model to the General Circulation Models (GCM), the impacts of climate change with a doubling of CO2 on growth duration, yield and ir-rigation damand for winter wheat in China were evaluated. Also, the change in overall output of winter wheat in the studied regions was estimated, by employing an agroeco-nomic model. The authors further adapted several agroclimatic indices to analyze the changes in moisture status, the northern and southern distributing limits, varietal dispo-sition, as well as the cropping systems for winter wheat in the regions concerned. Finally, several strategies were advanced for adapting the climate change in future.The results should not be regarded as predictions, but as plusible assessments of potential effects of climate change on winter wheat production in China.