国际土地利用/覆盖变化模型研究综述

Review on Land Use and Land Cover Change Models

国际上对土地利用/覆盖变化的研究由来已久,近年由于土地利用/覆盖变化对全球变化的贡献及响应,预测土地利用/覆盖变化成为必然。由此,越来越多的科学家致力于研究土地利用/覆盖变化模型,并取得了积极进展。论文介绍了目前国际上土地利用/覆盖变化模型的一些相关问题:①土地利用/覆盖变化模拟的尺度依赖性;②土地利用/覆盖变化模拟的数据问题;③预测土地利用/覆盖变化的位置与数量。回顾了已有的5种主要的土地利用/覆盖变化模型:①基于行为者的土地利用/覆盖变化模型;②经验统计模型;③最优化模型;④混合/综合模型;⑤动力模拟模型。最后总结了现有模型中存在的问题,并探讨了今后土地利用/覆盖变化模型发展的方向。

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) study has been carried out for a long time in the world.Recently,because of contribution and response of LUCC to global change,it is necessary to predict LUCC.Therefore,more and more scientist s devote themselves to studying LUCC models,and have made positive progress in t his aspect.This paper presents some correlative issues about LUCC models,i.e.,sc ale dependency of LUCC modeling,data issues of LUCC modeling,and location and qu antity of land,use change prediction.It reviews the available five kinds of main LUCC models:1)Agent,based Models of Land,use/Land,cover Change(ABM/LUCC);2)Empi rical statistical models;3)Optimisation Model;4)Hybrid/Integrated models;and 5)D ynamic simulation models.It then summarizes the problems of the existing models, and discusses the future developing direction of LUCC models.Although much progr ess has been made in theory and practice of LUCC models,and many new modeling me thodology and technique have been developed with multiple purposes,there still e xist certain problems in these models.The understanding of LUCC models multi,sca le attribute is inadequate and there is a lack of interaction of the temporal an d spatial studies of the models,so the validity of the models is affected.Finall y,we should further strength the integration of modeling methodology and constit ute more effective LUCC models.