我国中长期粮食单产潜力的分析预测

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIALITY OF GRAIN UNIT YIELDIN THE MIDDLE-LONG TERM IN CHINA

新中国成立后粮食单产发展可以概括成单产水平稳定上升(194 9～195 9)、持续低势攀爬(196 0～1981)、持续高势提升(1982～1999)和滑坡调整徘徊(2 0 0 0～2 0 0 3)等4个阶段。粮食单产以年均72 6 9kg/hm2 的速度不断提高,潜在年提升能力在15 0kg /hm2 以上,当前我国的粮食单产水平是4 5 0 0kg/hm2 。我国粮食单产仍将持续提高,但是,2 0 0 4～2 0 10年我国必须经历一个粮食单产超常规的发展阶段。文章从品种更新换代、主要粮食作物、粮食主产区单产水平以及高产技术的创新和推广角度。

There were four development stages of grain unit yield since 1949, which were the stably increasing stage (1949～1959), the climbing up stage in lower level (1960～1981), the promoting stage in higher level (1982～1999) and the adjusting stage (2000～2003). The annual increasing ability of grain unit yield is 72.69 kg per hectare for the average level, 150kg per hectare for the potential level. Grain unit yield is 4500 kg per hectare in China now. The special development stage of grain unit yield should be presented in the period from 2004 to 2010. In this paper, the development prospect of grain unit yield in the middle-long term in China was forecasted by the side of variety renewal, major grain crops, key grain production areas, innovation and extension of high yield technique respectively.