货币流量分析框架下的稳健财政政策预期效果研究

A Study on the Expected Performance of the Steady Fiscal Policy under the Framework of Monetary Flow

本文通过货币流量分析的方法对稳健财政政策的预期效果进行研究,以考察各宏观经济变量在稳健财政政策下,对产出或收入的影响。研究结果表明,央行调整货币政策,应考虑其对财政的影响,否则,难以达到预期的效果;稳健财政政策的实施,将为我国政府深化收入分配政策的结构性改革提供宽松的经济与社会环境,有利于中央财政加大对经济欠发达地区的支出力度;稳健的财政政策更有利于政府实行总量控制下的结构调整,优化产业结构,达到稳健财政政策预期的效果;实施稳健财政政策,防止了在长期过程中“紧缩效应”的显现,降低了财政风险,进而避免经济波动所产生的社会福利损失。

China will quit the positive finance policy and adopt the steady fiscal policy for the future. The paper studies the expectant purposes of the steady fiscal policy by monetary liquidity analytical method and looks into various macroeconomic variables' influence on output or income under the steady fiscal policy. The study indicate that the central bank should consider monetary policy's influences on finance when adjusting monetary policy,otherwise it is difficult to achieve the expectant purposes.The practice of the steady fiscal policy will provide loose economic and social condition that is in favor of central finance's increasing payout power to needy area.The practice of the steady fiscal policy will prevent the emergence of the contraction effects formed in a long period of time, reduce fiscal risk, moreover avoid the social welfare' lose.