摘要
虽然TD-SCDMA的整个产业前景依然不明朗,但已经可以梳理出一些头绪了。
By the end of June, the second phase of the field test of China's TD-SCDMA standards is due to finish. The technical evaluation report of the test, which the industry is waiting for, may become the critical point of commercialization of TD-SCDMA. As the government attitude towards TD-SCDMA becomes clearer, believing that TD-SCDMA will definitely have some share in the 3G market, the focus of people's attention is transferring from the maturation of the technology to the practical applications of TD-SCDMA. At the 2005 International Summit of TD-SCDMA-SCDMA held in Beijing on April 26, the industry expressed confirmative views on the technology of TD-SCDMA, yet very little was mentioned about the test. The anxiety about the test shown by both the government and the industry indicates that it's not a normal test but a decisive matter involving too many things, such as China's 3G standards, issuing 3G license and re-organiza-tion of the telecommunications industry, each item of these things is related with distribution of tens and hundreds of billion yuan fortune. The government faces to make another difficult decision which is related with not only the industrial environment but also the change of the whole industry, that means the decision about TD-SCDMA is closely linked with the re-organization of the carriers. Most possibly the government will take an compromised way to issue 3G license at the time when the technology of TD-SCDMA is relatively mature and is not too late. Many believes the time will be the end of this year. Up to now, the development of TD-SCDMA reaches a very high level, it seems the dawn is corning. For the future, people can make clearer and calmer decision.
