宁夏国民经济用水投入产出分析

Input-Output Analysis of Water Consumption for Economic Development in Ningxia

应用将传统的价值型投入产出表和水资源利用的实物型投入产出表相结合的乘数分析方法,研究了宁夏各产业水资源产出边际效应,以及水资源供给与需求对宁夏国民经济各部门直接与间接影响。这种方法克服了目前国内在对水资源需求分析中主要是计算各部门的直接水资源消耗系数,不能揭示各个经济部门之间的相互影响,也不能对各个产业水资源产出的边际效应做出全面综合结论的不足。分析出与宁夏严重缺水不相适应的经济发展所造成的问题,并提供了相应的对策。

The I/0 analysis of regional macroeconomic water resources is a major component for the establishment of water planning and management targets. With an I/0 approach, it is possible to account for both direct and indirect effects on the supply and demand of water resources. The I/0 analysis is an effective method for water resources development and management. The prevailing method of macroeconomic water demand analysis in China is to calculate the direct water consumption coefficients of each sector, and then rank these sectors by their coefficients to derive sector priorities. The advantage of this approach is its simplicity and easy to be used by decision makers. Its weakness is that it cannot reveal the interaction among different economic sectors and does not provide overall and comprehensive conclusions for the marginal effects of the water input of each industry. The I/0 multiplier analysis could overcome those shortcomings. Due to water resource's non-profit peculiarity, the financial input-out sheet of water resource can't be directly constructed unless traditional financial input-output sheet and physical input-output sheet of water resource can be combined. With this approach, characteristics and interrelationship of water utilization in various sectors of local economy, as well as the influence of industrial structure on water demand and supply are studied in macro economy perspective. Therefore, problems deriving from water consuming economic activities are identified and countermeasures put forward.