江淮平原油菜渍害预报模型

A Waterlogging Forecasting Model for Rape in the Plain of the Yangtze-Huai Rivers

在建立油菜生长模型(RAMOD)的基础上,根据江淮地区15个气象台(站)40年(1961～2000)的逐日气候资料与同期同地油菜面上产量资料,分析了降水量、降水日数和日照时数等气象因子与油菜产量的关系,构建了油菜渍害影响模块,以之与RAMOD嵌套,对江淮地区油菜渍害进行了试预报。结果表明,预报准确率达到23/30,尤其是渍害严重发生年没有漏报,取得了满意的结果。

Based on development of the Rape Growth Model(RAMOD) and analyses of the relationship between rape yields and meteorological factors including precipitation, number of rainy days and sunshine duration in hours, a module of waterlogging damage for rape was established using the rape yields and climatic data at 15 sites for 40 years(1961-2000) in the Yangtze-Huai River region. With the module and the RAMOD,tests were also made using the historical data to forecast the rape waterlogging damage and a satisfied result was obtained, i.e. the rape waterlogging damage were accurately forecasted at a rate of 23/30,and no serious waterlogging damages were missing.