菲利普斯曲线在中国经济中的实证研究——基于产出缺口的分析

An Empirical Test of Phillips Curves in China

文章着重检验了我国经济中的基于产出缺口的菲利普斯曲线的存在性.文章首先将实际产出分解成不可观测趋势成分和周期成分,设定它们服从一个简单的向量自回归过程,再运用卡尔曼滤波技术估计出我国1952～2002年的实际产出,从而得到产出缺口的估计值.然后以产出缺口和通货膨胀率的滞后值作为解释变量对通货膨胀率进行回归,发现在我国菲利普斯曲线在长期内是不成立的.

This paper tests the output gapbased Phillips Curves, using data in China from 1952 to 2002. I first estimate the unobserved potential output by Kalman Filter technique based on the assumption that real output can be decomposed into trend and cycle output, which are modeled in a statespace representation derived from a vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Then a regression model is established between inflation rate and output gap, which indicates that Phillips Curves can not hold in the long run in China.