区域贸易安排与出口潜力:引力模型结论的调适

RTA and China’s Export Potentials: Modifications on the Gravity Model

引力模型为参与区域贸易安排可以有效促进成员国的出口潜力的论断提供了有力证据。文章通过总量和产品类别两个层面的实证分析,得出区域贸易安排对不同产品类别出口潜力的影响效果并不一致。研究认为在指导我国参与区域贸易安排的战略选择上,需要将引力模型得出的贸易不足和贸易过度结论与比较优势和出口收益传导机制有机结合起来。

The gravity model has testified the judgment that participating in RTA will promote a country’s trade potentials. This paper analyzed the different effects of RTA from the perspectives of trade volume and product category. The author stressed that a country should combine the conclusion of trade shortage or trade excess in the gravity model with the comparative advantages and export income channels to better guide China’s RTA strategy .